Is a Nankai Megathrust Coming? Japan on Edge after Last Week’s Earthquake

Japan is on edge after last week’s magnitude 7.1 earthquake, which shook up Miyazaki Prefecture in the country’s southernmost island of Kyushu. The damage was minimal, and the tsunami warning was canceled after a few hours, but there have been warnings that a big “Nankai Megathrust” earthquake might be around the corner.

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What Is the Nankai Trough and a “Nankai Megathrust” Earthquake?

The Nankai Trough is the gap between the Philippine and Eurasian Plates, and movement between these plates has been the source of some of Japan’s most destructive “Nankai Megathrust” earthquakes in the past. The last large earthquake in the region was an 8.0 magnitude quake that claimed thousands of lives in 1946. Japan’s earthquake record goes back as far as the year 684.

The Japanese government estimates that if a similar large “Nankai Megathrust” type earthquake occurred today, it could cost ten times what the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami did and claim more than 300,000 lives. Since this region of Japan is so important for manufacturing, being home to companies like Toyota and Mitsubishi, the economic disruption of a large quake could be incalculable.

Even worse, Japan is about to enter its Obon Holidays, a four-day period in which millions of people will travel home to be with family. Japan’s roads and trains are packed to the gills during this time. If a major quake happened to hit right during the holiday rush, the death toll could be much higher than if one struck during a normal time of year.

What’s It Like Living In an Earthquake Country?

If you live in Japan, you get used to receiving messages from friends and family members whenever an earthquake hits, asking if you’re okay. Last week’s earthquake hit off the coast of Miyazaki Prefecture, 700 miles / 1,000 km to the south of Tokyo, so we didn’t feel anything in the Kanto area.

While people outside Japan might think it crazy to willingly live in a country where the ground could start shaking at any moment, it’s truly not a big deal. As I wrote in the aftermath of the tragic January 1st earthquake earlier this year, we roughly only notice one quake a week or so. When this happens, we just stop what we’re doing while we wait for it to pass. We trust that Japan’s outstanding building codes will protect the house from collapsing. You probably have a higher chance of getting sent to an isekai world by Truck-kun than dying in an earthquake in Japan.

But this thought doesn’t do much to push back the primal fear any of us would feel if we were in Japan and things suddenly started to shake. It can be hard to stay calm during a sudden emergency, even though you know it will end soon.

Can Earthquakes Be Good for a Society?

Could Japan’s tendency toward natural disasters, be it earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, or typhoons be a good thing? I would say yes. There’s nothing like a national crisis to bring people together, and whenever a terrible disaster strikes, everyone in Japan pulls together to help the affected people recover as quickly as possible. I still have fond memories of chatting with my family in the dark during the four-hour rolling blackouts immediately after the 2011 earthquake, or listening to the calming voice of the announcer on the radio. We’re all safe in the arms of NHK.

Disasters can bring countries closer together, too. When Japan had its huge earthquake and tsunami back in 2011, the entire world stepped up to help, starting with the U.S. military, which airlifted emergency supplies within hours of the disaster. Everyone in Japan felt a close connection to the rest of the world during the crisis.

Thanks for reading this blog post about the fears of a future major Nankai Megathrust earthquake in Japan. We hope things remain calm in Japan in the coming months!